DVR was believed by some to signal the death of the serial, but the increasing importance of 7 day DVR ratings can no longer be ignored.
With nearly half of all US TV viewers (42%) owning DVRs, the platform is playing a larger role in determining the true viewership of a show. And not only for the live plus overnight ratings that you mostly hear about. The week’s worth of DVR usage is putting the cat amongst the pigeons — particularly for serials that often have huge time-shifted crowds.
TV Guide have an interesting piece pointing out the impact that live plus 7 day DVR playback is having on viewership.
For example, the season 4 premiere of FX‘s Sons OF Anarchy attracted a respectable 4.9 million viewers, but by the time 7 days of DVR usage was factored in, that number had soared to 6.5 million viewers — making it the most-watched program in FX history.
With these numbers reflecting a more accurate picture of viewership, FX president John Landgraf admits that he waits about five weeks, until every scrap of ratings data is in, before determining the fate of a show.
“You don’t know who’s watching your show until that time. The numbers are so far apart it’s not even funny.”
It’s a similar story for FOX’s semi-seriable Terra Nova, which debuted with a rather dejecting 3.1 rating in the demo but terra-soared to a more respectable 4.4 demo rating by the time 7 days of DVR usage had been counted.
FOX‘s Fringe is another DVR monster. As per EW:
If you look at which shows had biggest gains on a percentage basis — in other words, which enjoyed the biggest increase compared to their debuts rather which ones had the largest raw increase — Fox’s Fringe is at the top of the list. Literally a minority of the show’s viewers actually watch this show the first night it airs (Fridays) — the second week got a 67 percent bump, from a 1.2 to a 2.0.
The implications for serialized TV shows are potentially huge because a lot of these overarching stories are viewed by audiences after their original airings. While we’d all like serials to have big overnight numbers, if huge amounts of viewers manage to catch up within 7 days, that cannot be overlooked out of hand. Certainly, every bit counts when the margins are squeezed, and that’s what we’re talking about here.
Of course, one of the central dilemmas is getting time-shifted viewers not to blast through commercials. This is where networks get their money from advertisers (aka the rarely publicized C3 ratings), so inevitably this is the overriding factor in the time-shifted ‘value’ of a series. Probably a topic for another overarching day, to be fair, but this story will indeed continue.
Do you think the increased importance (however relative) being placed on the live plus 7 ratings can be an advantage to the creation and survival of serials?
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{ 5 comments… read them below or add one }
Only if those viewings can be monetized. Which right now they cannot under the current broadcasting model.
What DVR numbers are showing, to me, is that new methods of advertising & distributing content need to be conceived.
Painful as it can be at times, expect more in-show product placement/advertising.
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I was just going to say the same thing, product placement from 1st frame to last. Maybe opening credits brought to you by Brand X, plenty of outdoor billboards, bus and taxi signs galore, lots of trips to malls and corner stores with cool products lining the shelves. It could save the serial, but also turn it into an infomercial. Then again, maybe an hour long show could run for an hour instead of 43 minutes.
Still, it’s time to consider new ways of evaluating viewership.
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Agree with the comments, they already have the viewers, but they need to capitalize that into advertising negotiations.
I mean, they shouldn’t consider live viewing as a 100%. This DVR numbers should be part of that 100% too, with an impact analysis, and then, canalize that impact into any form of advertising.
For SCI-FI shows or any show with low ratings, they should also consider live viewing overseas through the internet. I don’t know how would they do it, but they should, because we would very much likely pay for it.
That EW note, “Literally a minority of the show’s viewers actually watch this show the first night it airs (Fridays)” is a wrong statement: a 67% bump it’s NOT a majority… a majority would be any % above 100% (1.2 > 0.8)
I hope Fox do the same as FX in reviewing their shows after 5 weeks
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I DVR at least 7 shows a week. If I didn’t have that oppitunity that would be 7 shows I wouldn’t be able to watch. I would have to pick and choose which shows to support. The way people watch TV is changing. People want to watch when it’s convenient for them or there is more than one show on at the same time that they want to watch. The advertisers and studios are going to have to accept this and change their ways. I don’t mind product placement as long as it’s not as blatant as some shows tend to do it right know.
I love my DVR. I now watch a way larger variety of shows then ever and I enjoy it greatly!
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I think having “Kitchen Nightmares” showing right before “Fringe” really hurts. I mean REALLY hurts! I watch “Kitchen Nightmares” b/c I like Chef Ramsey — he has a level of discernment that goes beyond what recipes the resteraunt serves.
BUT, it annoys the heck out of me, b/c even though I like the show, I grit my teeth and eagerly await for “Kitchen Nightmares” to be over so I can watch “Fringe”. I also DVR the show so I can watch it again.
If FOX were serious about the success of “Fringe”, they would put the new show, w/Kiefer Southerland, “Touch” on before “Fringe”.
However, I think ScyFy will pick up “Fringe” and put it in their “prime time” slot on Fridays. They haven’t had any success since “Stargate SG-1″ went down the toilet. “Fringe” already films in Vancouver (most of ScyFy shows are shot there). They will work out a deal so that “Fringe” can continue like it is.
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